Investment Updates

- The newly released consensus forecast of 60 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal is for an unprecedented -25.3% reduction of economic activity this quarter, followed by +6% growth in Q3, and +6.6% growth in Q4.

As you might expect, business owner optimism plunged in March. It was the largest monthly decline in the survey's history. But previous monthly declines of the same magnitude have occurred since the National Federation of Independent Business began this monthly survey in 1986, under the direction of chief economist William Dunkelberg. A month from now, the results of NFIB's survey will tell us much more about the future of the economy.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, a benchmark of American financial might, and a proxy for progress worldwide, closed Friday at 2,789.82, up 11.4% from last Friday's closing price of 2,488.65. Expect volatility until the health crisis apex is more predictable, but keep in mind that the outbreak of COVID-19 is expected by public health authorities to be at its worst sometime between mid-April and the third week in June.

While the financial effects of the crisis are unfolding, the U.S. Government's response is massive. If you own a business and have questions about the Paycheck Protection Program or the CARES Act, please contact our office as soon as possible. Financial aid from the U.S. Government Small Business Administration is on a first-come, first-served basis.

Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor.

This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.