Worst Week Since 2008 Brings out a Sunday Market Letter

 It's been a while (about 12 years) since I've sent out a market letter on a Sunday, but with all of the scary news circulating the past week I wanted to share some articles and info that I've found educational and informative this weekend.

As you all know, I'm a big believer in facts over hype (whether times are exceedingly good or bad), and leaning on knowledge and experience versus emotions and hysteria often help you navigate uncertainty successfully.

That said, here are some articles and graphics I found worth sharing. I hope they help you to better understand the current environment and state of the financial markets. And these are safe links, if you need confirmation you can email me, but this is not a hacker email.

New York Times overview of COVID-19

Marketwatch.com article on the history of sharp declines in stocks 

Fed Watch tool showing market expectations of interest rates (Fed Funds)

(note: expectations are now at 94% for a 1/2% rate cut in March!)

The sell off last week was unusually sharp, the worst in 12 years:

So how does the average balanced portfolio (60% stocks/40% bonds) typically do after a major sell off?

Did the "experts" see this coming? (hint:no!) The S&P500 closed Friday at 2954, well below even the most pessimistic forecast:

And here's a longer look at the stock market. As you can see, we've given back about 1/3 of the huge gains from 2019. But over the past 12 months the S&P500 is up over 5% even after this sell off:

We'll continue to keep you informed, but feel free to reach out if you have any questions or concerns. While the catalyst is different, this isn't our first time through this type of uncertainty, and I'm confident we'll successfully weather it together.

Sincerely,

Kevin